…..According to Mail-in Vote Requests
With North Carolina as the first state in the country to send ballots to respond to vote-by-mail requests, the early voting phase of the 2020 presidential election began this Friday . This and three other key states have already reflected a significant increase in requests to vote in this way compared to the past. There, voters registered as Democrats are outperforming Republicans in doing so .
Although North Carolina voters have until the end of October to request an absentee vote, the first data shows that the way to participate in elections is changing dramatically this year due to the coronavirus pandemic : it is a snapshot on electoral participation, when there are eight weeks left in the race to occupy the White House.
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Public data for North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania show that these states have received significantly more absentee ballot requests from voters registered as Democrats than those who turn out as Republicans.
An estimate of party affiliations by TargetSmart reflects a similar situation for Ohio . On the other hand, in Wisconsin Democrats and Republicans are side by side. The only state with the highest number of vote-by-mail requests from Republicans so far is Michigan .
These six pendulum states are key to the strategies of both the president, Donald Trump, and his designated rival, Democrat Joe Biden. Trump scored a slim victory in all of them in 2016.
As of September 3, more than 643,000 North Carolina voters have requested an absentee ballot. Of those requests, more than 337,000 were from voters registered as Democrats and 103,000 from Republicans. The other requests were from voters with no affiliation to either of the two main parties.
At the same height of the 2016 presidential race, only 38,871 people had requested the absentee vote in that state.
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More than 450,000 Democrats have already applied for absentee voting in Florida, while the Republicans who did so are nearly 295,000, according to the Justice Department. In 2016, Trump won there by a difference of 112,911 votes . Among the main pendulum states, this is the one that has the most delegates awarded in the Electoral College that elects the president (29) .
In Pennsylvania, where Trump won by less than 45,000 votes, there have already been more than a million mail-in ballot requests from Democrats, compared to 388,000 from Republicans. In other words, 70% versus 25% .
To determine what is happening in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where party affiliation is not public, an estimate was used based on a statistical model. TargetSmart developed this data from multiple commercial sources.
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In Ohio, Democrats are the authors of 50% of absentee ballot requests , while 38% are Republicans. In Wisconsin, a substantial tie has so far been recorded, with 39% of requests per side. Michigan has been the only pendulum state so far where Republicans gain the upper hand, having made 43% of applications against 38% of Democrats.
The latter have accumulated a total of 42% of the requests for absentee voting presented so far in the states where the electoral processes have already begun prior to November 3, which includes less decisive places such as West Virginia and Maryland. Republicans are close at 40%.
Even though Democrats are asking to vote early more than Republicans, voters still have weeks to submit their requests , which can significantly change the situation between the current state of affairs and Election Day.
Because Trump has launched countless attacks on the validity of the vote by mail and has downplayed the severity of the coronavirus, it is not excluded that some of his supporters may prefer to vote in person.